Myanmar: the Next Iraq?
Seen from afar, the growing turbulence in Myanmar appears a simple struggle between the brutal ruling junta and forces of democracy... Up close, however, the crisis is extremely complex and fraught with unpredictable perils that could risk turning Myanmar into Southeast Asia's version of strife-torn Iraq...
Extreme caution is advised in dealing with Myanmar. The central government has been at war for 50 years with 17 ethnic rebel groups seeking secession from the former 14-state Union of Burma created by the British Empire...
Most of the major ethnic groups have their own small armies and finance themselves by smuggling timber, jewels, and drugs...
If the junta were to be replaced by a democratic civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and military repression ended, it is likely Myanmar's ethnic rebellions could quickly re-ignite...
A new democratic government in Yangon that is not tough enough to deal with secessionist regions around its troubled periphery could see Burma fall into Iraqi-style internal turmoil, and also invite intervention by covetous neighbors. At worst, India and China could even clash head-on over control of strategic Burma...
A splintering Burma could create a fire-storm in Southeast Asia. Accordingly, the Western powers and Asean must understand that if they force the Burmese military from power, they had better have an almost equally strong new government to replace the unloved junta...
Read the whole article.
Lee Kuan Yew on Myanmar and Aung San Suu Kyi: "I have visited (Burma) and I know that there is only one instrument of government, and that is the army... If I were Aung San Suu Kyi, I think I'd rather be behind a fence and be a symbol than after two or three years, be found impotent." - SM Lee Kuan Yew, Reuters, Jun 6, 1996, which sparked a flurry of protests from Burmese students.
Extreme caution is advised in dealing with Myanmar. The central government has been at war for 50 years with 17 ethnic rebel groups seeking secession from the former 14-state Union of Burma created by the British Empire...
Most of the major ethnic groups have their own small armies and finance themselves by smuggling timber, jewels, and drugs...
If the junta were to be replaced by a democratic civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and military repression ended, it is likely Myanmar's ethnic rebellions could quickly re-ignite...
A new democratic government in Yangon that is not tough enough to deal with secessionist regions around its troubled periphery could see Burma fall into Iraqi-style internal turmoil, and also invite intervention by covetous neighbors. At worst, India and China could even clash head-on over control of strategic Burma...
A splintering Burma could create a fire-storm in Southeast Asia. Accordingly, the Western powers and Asean must understand that if they force the Burmese military from power, they had better have an almost equally strong new government to replace the unloved junta...
Read the whole article.
Lee Kuan Yew on Myanmar and Aung San Suu Kyi: "I have visited (Burma) and I know that there is only one instrument of government, and that is the army... If I were Aung San Suu Kyi, I think I'd rather be behind a fence and be a symbol than after two or three years, be found impotent." - SM Lee Kuan Yew, Reuters, Jun 6, 1996, which sparked a flurry of protests from Burmese students.
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